Awakening Latent Human Capital: The Opening-up and Entrepreneurship in 19th-Century China
Keywords:
Civil Service Examinations, Human Capital, Entrepreneurship, Bibliometrics, Treaty PortsAbstract
This paper examines meritocratic recruitment and incentive issues within the context of China's initial industrialization. We analyze the impact of upper-tail human capital on entrepreneurship in China between 1840 and 1904, exploring how the Imperial Examination system influenced talent allocation between traditional sectors and modern firms. Our study leverages the treaty port system as an exogenous shock to China's industrialization, revealing heterogeneous choices made by different echelons of the upper-tail human capital. We find that traditional human capital played a diverse role in modern entrepreneurship, with some intellectuals transitioning to new opportunities while others remained entrenched in bureaucratic roles. Our findings highlight the complex interplay between civil service examinations and economic modernization, offering insights into how bureaucratic structures can influence talent reallocation and industrial development.
Downloads
References (115)
Acemoglu, Daron. 1995. "Reward structures and the allocation of talent." European Economic Review, 39: 17–33.
Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson. 2002. "Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution." The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4): 1231–1294.
Allen, Robert C. 2003. "Progress and Poverty in Early Modern Europe." Economic History Review, 56: 403–443.
Ancient Books Editorial Committee. 2009. Zhongguo Guji Zongmu (Grand Catalog of Books in pre-1912 China). Shanghai: Shanghai Classical Publishing House.
Aneja, Abhay, and Guo Xu. 2024. "Strengthening State Capacity: Civil Service Reform and Public Sector Performance during the Gilded Age." American Economic Review, 114(8): 2352–2387.
Bai, Chong-En, Ruixue Jia, Hongbin Li, and Xin Wang. 2024. "Entrepreneurial Reluctance: Talent and Firm Creation in China." The Economic Journal.
Bai, Ying. 2019. "Farewell to confucianism: The modernizing effect of dismantling China's imperial examination system." Journal of Development Economics, 141.
Bai, Ying, and James Kai-sing Kung. 2015. "Diffusing Knowledge While Spreading God's Message: Protestantism and Economic Prosperity in China, 1840–1920." Journal of the European Economic Association, 13: 669–698.
Bai, Ying, and Ruixue Jia. 2016. "Elite Recruitment and Political Stability: The Impact of the Abolition of China's Civil Service Exam." Econometrica, 84(2): 677–733.
Baker, Andrew, David F. Larcker, and Charles C. Y. Wang. 2022. "How much should we trust staggered difference-in-differences estimates?" Journal of Financial Economics, 144: 370–395.
Baten, Joerg, and Jan Luiten van Zanden. 2008. "Book production and the onset of modern economic growth." Journal of Economic Growth, 13(3).
Baumol, William J. 1996. "Entrepreneurship: Productive, unproductive, and destructive." Journal of Business Venturing, 11(1): 3–22.
Becker, Sascha O., and Ludger Woessmann. 2009. "Was Weber Wrong? A Human Capital Theory of Protestant Economic History." The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(2): 531–596.
Becker, Sascha O., Francisco J. Pino, and Jordi Vidal-Robert. 2021. "Freedom of the Press? Catholic Censorship During the Counter-Reformation." CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP16092.
Bertrand, Marianne, Robin Burgess, Arunish Chawla, and Guo Xu. 2020. "The Glittering Prizes: Career Incentives and Bureaucrat Performance." The Review of Economic Studies, 87(2): 626–655.
Besley, Timothy, and Maitreesh Ghatak. 2005. "Competition and Incentives with Motivated Agents." American Economic Review, 95(3): 616–636.
Besley, Timothy, and Torsten Persson. 2011. Pillars of Prosperity: The Political Economics of Development Clusters. Princeton University Press.
Besley, Timothy, Robin Burgess, Adnan Khan, and Guo Xu. 2022. "Bureaucracy and Development." Annual Review of Economics, 14: 397–424.
Biggerstaff, Knight. 1961. The Earliest Modern Government Schools in China. Cornell University Press.
Bo, Shiyu, Cong Liu, and Yan Zhou. 2023. "Military investment and the rise of industrial clusters: Evidence from China's self-strengthening movement." Journal of Development Economics, 161: 103015.
Britannica, Encyclopedia. 2017. "Treaty of Nanjing — China-United Kingdom [1842]." Accessed 17 March 2017.
Cage, Julia, and Valeria Rueda. 2016. "The Long-Term Effects of the Printing Press in Sub-Saharan Africa." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8(3): 69–99.
Callaway, Brantly, and Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna. 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods." Journal of Econometrics, 225: 200–230.
Callaway, Brantly, Andrew Goodman-Bacon, and Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna. 2024. "Event Studies with a Continuous Treatment." AEA Papers and Proceedings, 114: 601–605.
Cantoni, Davide, and Noam Yuchtman. 2013. "The political economy of educational content and development: Lessons from history." Journal of Development Economics, 104: 233–244.
Caponi, Vincenzo, and Simone Nobili. 2024. "The effects of public sector employment on the economy." IZA World of Labor, 332.
Cengiz, Doruk, Arindrajit Dube, Attila Lindner, and Ben Zipperer. 2019. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs." The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(3): 1405–1454.
Chaney, Eric. 2016. "Religion and the Rise and Fall of Islamic Science." Working paper.
Chaney, Eric. 2020. "Modern Library Holdings and Historic City Growth." Working paper.
Chang, Chung-Li. 1955. The Chinese Gentry: Studies on Their Role in Nineteenth-Century Chinese Society. Seattle: University of Washington Press.
Chang, Chung-Li. 1962. The Income of the Chinese Gentry. Seattle, WA: University of Washington Press.
Chen, Ting, James Kai-sing Kung, and Chicheng Ma. 2020. "Long Live Keju! The Persistent Effects of China's Civil Examination System." The Economic Journal, 130(631): 2030–2064.
Chen, Zhiwu, and Chicheng Ma. 2022. "Prioritizing Stability over Productivity: How Confucianism Facilitated Population Growth in Preindustrial China." Working Paper.
Chen, Zhiwu, Chicheng Ma, and Andrew J. Sinclair. 2021. "Banking on the Confucian Clan: Why China Developed Financial Markets So Late." The Economic Journal.
China Kexie Development Research Center. 2014. Jindai Zhongguo Keji Shetuan (Modern Chinese Science and Technology Societies). China Science and Technology Press.
Cohen, Paul A. 1984. Discovering History in China: American historical writing on the recent Chinese past. New York: Columbia University Press.
Denecke, Wiebke, Wai-yee Li, and Xiaofei Tian. 2017. The Oxford Handbook of Classical Chinese Literature (1000 BCE–900 CE). Oxford University Press.
Dittmar, Jeremiah, and Skipper Seabold. 2019. "New Media and Competition: Printing and Europe's Transformation after Gutenberg." Centre for Economic Performance, LSE CEP Discussion Papers dp1600.
Dittmar, Jeremiah E. 2011. "Information Technology and Economic Change: The Impact of The Printing Press." The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126(3): 1133–1172.
Duan, Li. 2014. "Fuzhou Shipyard at Fujian Province: Early Divergence in Late Qing Modernization." UC Berkeley: Library.
Du, Xuncheng. 1991. Minzu Ziben Zhuyi yu JiuZhongguo Zhengfu 1840-1937 (national capitalism and old Chinese government 1840-1937). Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Press.
Dyke, Paul A. Van. 2007. The Canton Trade: Life and Enterprise on the China Coast, 1700-1845. Hong Kong University Press.
Elman, Benjamin A. 1991. "Political, Social, and Cultural Reproduction via Civil Service Examinations in Late Imperial China." The Journal of Asian Studies, 50(1): 7–28.
Elman, Benjamin A. 2000. A Cultural History of Civil Examinations in Late Imperial China. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Elman, Benjamin A. 2005. On Their Own Terms: Science in China, 1550–1900. Harvard University Press.
Elman, Benjamin A. 2013. Civil Examinations and Meritocracy in Late Imperial China. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Fairbank, John King, and Kwang-Ching Liu. 1980. The Cambridge History of China: Late Ch'ing, 1800-1911. Vol. 11. Cambridge University Press.
Fay, Peter Ward. 2000. The Opium War, 1840–1842: Barbarians in the Celestial Empire in the Early Part of the Nineteenth Century and the Way by Which They Forced the Gates Ajar. Chapel Hill, North Carolina: University of North Carolina Press.
Feuerwerker, Albert. 1958. China's Early Industrialization: Sheng Hsuan-huai (1844-1916) and Mandarin Enterprise. Harvard University Press.
Finan, F., B. A. Olken, and R. Pande. 2017. "Chapter 6 - The Personnel Economics of the Developing State." In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 2, ed. Abhijit Vinayak Banerjee and Esther Duflo, 467–514. North-Holland.
Galor, Oded. 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory." In Handbook of Economic Growth, Vol. 1, ed. Philippe Aghion and Steven N. Durlauf. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Geromichalos, Athanasios, and Ioannis Kospentaris. 2022. "The unintended consequences of meritocratic government hiring." European Economic Review, 144: 104093.
Goodman-Bacon, Andrew. 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing." Journal of Econometrics, 225: 254–277.
Goodman, Bryna. 2000. "Improvisations on a Semicolonial Theme, or, How to Read a Celebration of Transnational Urban Community." The Journal of Asian Studies, 59(4): 889–926.
Hanushek, Eric A., and Ludger Woessmann. 2008. "The Role of Cognitive Skills in Economic Development." Journal of Economic Literature, 46(3): 607–668.
Hao, Yen-p'ing. 1970a. The Comprador in Nineteenth Century China: Bridge Between East and West. Harvard East Asian Series. Harvard University Press.
Hao, Yen-p'ing. 1970b. "A 'New Class' in China's Treaty Ports: The Rise of the Comprador-Merchants." The Business History Review, 44(4): 446–459.
Harvard University, Academia Sinica, and Peking University. 2022. "China Biographical Database (CBDB)."
Ho, Ping-ti. 1962. "Studies on the Population of China, 1368–1953." Comparative Studies in Society and History, 5(1): 112–114.
Jia, Ruixue. 2014. "The Legacies of Forced Freedom: China's Treaty Ports." The Review of Economics and Statistics, 96(4).
Ji, Yingying. 2006. "Mingqing kejuzhi de shehui zhenghe gongneng: yi shehui liudong wei shijiao (On the Social Integrative Function of the Chinese Imperial Examination System in Ming-Ch'ing Period: From the Perspective of Social Mobility)." Chinese Journal of Sociology, 26(6): 197–215.
Keller, Wolfgang, and Carol H. Shiue. 2021. "The Economic Consequences of the Opium War." National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 29404.
Kelly, Morgan, Joel Mokyr, and Cormac Ó Gráda. 2023. "The Mechanics of the Industrial Revolution." Journal of Political Economy, 131(1): 59–94.
Koss, Daniel. 2017. "Political Geography of Empire: Chinese Varieties of Local Government." The Journal of Asian Studies, 76(1): 159–184.
Kun, Gang, et al. 1899. Qinding da Qing huidian shili (Imperially Established Institutes and Laws of the Great Qing Dynasty). Beijing: Zhonghua shu ju.
Kung, James Kai-sing, and Chicheng Ma. 2014. "Can cultural norms reduce conflicts? Confucianism and peasant rebellions in Qing China." Journal of Development Economics, 111: 132–149.
Kung, James, Kevin Zhengcheng Liu, and Xiaoming Zhang. 2024. "Merit-based Recruitment and Government Performance: Evidence from Random Assignment of Administrators." Working paper.
Kuo, Ting-yee, and Kwang-Ching Liu. 1978. "Self-strengthening: the pursuit of Western technology." The Cambridge History of China, 10(part 1): 491–542.
Leibovitz, Liel, and Matthew I. Miller. 2012. Fortunate Sons: The 120 Chinese Boys Who Came to America, Went to School, and Revolutionized an Ancient Civilization. Illustrated ed. W. W. Norton, Incorporated.
Lin, Qingyuan. 1986. Fujian Chuan Zheng Ju Shi Gao (Historical Documents of Fuzhou Shipyard). Fujian: Fujian People's Press.
Li, Xinhao. 2025. "Imports and Industrialization: Evidence from China, 1876-1936." Working paper.
Ma, Chicheng. 2021. "Knowledge Diffusion and Intellectual Change: When Chinese Literati Met European Jesuits." The Journal of Economic History, 81(4): 1052–1097.
Ma, Chicheng. 2024. "Classicism and Modern Growth: The Shadow of the Sages." The Journal of Economic History, 84(2): 395–431.
Mangal, Kunal. 2024. "The long-run costs of highly competitive exams for government jobs." Journal of Development Economics, 171: 103331.
Mazumdar, Sucheta. 1998. Sugar and Society in China: Peasants, Technology, and the World Market. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Asia Center.
McDonnell, E. M. 2017. "Patchwork Leviathan: How Pockets of Bureaucratic Governance Flourish within Institutionally Diverse Developing States." American Sociological Review, 82(3): 476–510.
Mitch, D. 1993. "The Role of Human Capital in the First Industrial Revolution." In The British Industrial Revolution: An Economic Perspective, ed. J. Mokyr. Boulder, CO: Westview.
Mokyr, Joel. 2002. The Gifts of Athena: Historical Origins of the Knowledge Economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Mokyr, Joel. 2005. "The Intellectual Origins of Modern Economic Growth." Journal of Economic History, 65(2): 285–351.
Mokyr, Joel. 2012. "Entrepreneurship and the Industrial Revolution in Britain." In The Invention of Enterprise: Entrepreneurship from Ancient Mesopotamia to Modern Times, ed. David S. Landes, Joel Mokyr and William J. Baumol, 183–210. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Mokyr, Joel. 2016. A Culture of Growth: The Origins of the Modern Economy. Princeton University Press.
Moreira, Diana, and Santiago Pérez. 2024. "Civil Service Exams and Organizational Performance: Evidence from the Pendleton Act." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 16(3): 250–291.
Mote, F. W. 1999. Imperial China: 900-1800. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Murphey, Rhoads. 1974. "The Treaty Ports and China's Modernization." In The Chinese City Between Two Worlds, ed. Mark Elvin and G. William Skinner, 17–72. Redwood City: Stanford University Press.
Murphy, Kevin M., Andrei Shleifer, and Robert W. Vishny. 1991. "The Allocation of Talent: Implications for Growth." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2).
Northcote, S. H., S. C. E. Trevelyan, and B. Jowett. 1854. Report on the Organisation of the Permanent Civil Service. London: Eyre & Spottiswoode.
Osterhammel, Jürgen. 1986. "Semicolonialism and Informal Empire in Twentieth-Century China: Towards a Framework of Analysis." In Imperialism and After: Continuities and Discontinuities, ed. Wolfgang J. Mommsen and Jürgen Osterhammel. London: Allen and Unwin.
Rawski, Thomas G. 1989. Economic Growth in Prewar China. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
Reinhardt, Anne. 2018. Navigating Semi-Colonialism: Shipping, Sovereignty, and Nation-Building in China, 1860–1937. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Rhoads, Edward J. M. 2011. Stepping Forth into the World: The Chinese Educational Mission to the United States, 1872-81. Hong Kong University Press.
Sandberg, Lars G. 1979. "The Case of the Impoverished Sophisticate: Human Capital and Swedish Economic Growth before World War I." Journal of Economic History, 39: 225–241.
Shi, He, Fushen Yao, and Cuidi Ye. 1991. Zhongguo Jindai Baokan Minglu (Directory of Modern Chinese Newspapers and Periodicals). Fujian, China: Fujian People's Publishing House.
Shiue, Carol H., and Wolfgang Keller. 2007. "Markets in China and Europe on the Eve of the Industrial Revolution." American Economic Review, 97(4): 1189–1216.
Sng, Tuan-Hwee. 2014. "Size and Dynastic Decline: The Principal-Agent Problem in Late Imperial China, 1700–1850." Explorations in Economic History, 54: 107–127.
Sng, Tuan-Hwee, and Chiaki Moriguchi. 2014. "Asia's Little Divergence: State Capacity in China and Japan before 1850." Journal of Economic Growth, 19(4): 439–470.
So, Billy K. L. 2011. "Modern China's Treaty Port Economy in Institutional Perspective: An Introductory Essay." In Treaty-port Economy in Modern China: Empirical Studies of Institutional Change and Economic Performance, ed. Billy K. L. So and Ramon H. Myers, 1–27. Berkeley, CA: Institute of East Asian Studies.
Sowell, Thomas. 1998. Conquests and Cultures: An International History. New York: Basic Books.
Spence, Jonathan D. 1999. The Search for Modern China. 2nd ed. New York: W. W. Norton.
Squicciarini, Mara P., and Nico Voigtländer. 2015. "Human Capital and Industrialization: Evidence from the Age of Enlightenment." The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(4).
Sun, Liyang, and Sarah Abraham. 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects." Journal of Econometrics, 225(2).
van de Ven, Hans. 2014. Breaking with the Past: The Maritime Customs Service and the Global Origins of Modernity in China. Columbia University Press.
Wada, Masahiro. 1978a. "徭役免条例の展と明末举人の法的位置 (The Development of the Ordinance on the Privilege of Exemption from corvee and the Legal Position of juren in the late Ming)." The Toyo Gakuho, 60(1.2): 93–131.
Wada, Masahiro. 1978b. "明代举人の形成程にする一考察 (A Study of the Formative Process of the Ju-ren Class in the Ming)." SHIGAKU-ZASSHI, 87(3): 36–71.
Wang, Zhiming. 2018. Qingdai Xiangju Jinshi yu Guanfu Jiaowang Huodong Yanjiu (A Study on the Interactions Between Resident Jinshi and Local Governments in Qing Dynasty). Shanghai, China: Shanghai Bookstore Publishing House.
Weber, Max. 1978. Economy and Society: An Outline of Interpretive Sociology. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Woodside, Alexander. 2006. Lost Modernities: China, Vietnam, Korea, and the Hazards of World History. Harvard University Press.
Xue, Melanie Meng. 2021. "Autocratic Rule and Social Capital: Evidence from Imperial China." SSRN Working Paper No. 2856803.
Xue, Melanie Meng, and Boxiao Zhang. 2023. "The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Affirmative Action: Evidence from Imperial China." Working Paper.
Yan, Zhongping. 1955. Zhongguo Mian Fangzhi Shigao (History of Chinese Cotton Textile Industries). Beijing: Kexue Chubanshe / China Science Publishing.
Yao, Yuan, Rui Wang, and Shufeng Yao. 2008. Zhongguo Jindai Keji Qikan Yuanliu 1792-1949 (The Origin and Development of Modern Chinese Science and Technology Journals). Shandong Education Publishing House.
Zhang, Yufa. 1987. Qingmo Minchu de Waizi Gongye (Foreign Ownership Firms in Early Modern China). Bulletin of Institute of Modern History, Academia Sinica. Institute of Modern History, Academia Sinica.
Zhang, Yufa. 1988a. Qingmo Minchu de Guanban Gongye (1860-1896) (Public Ownership Firms in Early Modern China). 清季自强运动研讨会论文集. Institute of Modern History, Academia Sinica.
Zhang, Yufa. 1988b. Qingmo Minchu de Guandu Shangban Gongye (State-Private Ownership Firms in Early Modern China). Bulletin of Institute of Modern History, Academia Sinica. Institute of Modern History, Academia Sinica.
Zhang, Yufa. 1989. Qingmo Minchu de Minying Gongye (Private Ownership Firms in Early Modern China). Bulletin of Institute of Modern History, Academia Sinica. Institute of Modern History, Academia Sinica.
Zhu, Baojiong, and Peilin Xie. 1979. Ming Qing Jinshi Timing Beilu Suoyin (Ming and Qing dynasty Jinshi Name Roster). Shanghai: Shanghai Guji Chuban She / Shanghai Classics Publishing House.
Downloads
How to Cite
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Centre for Quantitative History

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
The CQH Working Paper Series is a scholarly platform of the Centre for Quantitative History dedicated to facilitating the circulation of research. Copyright in each paper remains with the author(s). Authors publishing in the Series grant CQH a non-exclusive right to host, archive, and make the paper publicly available as part of the Series. Unless otherwise indicated, papers are distributed under a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 licence.